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Big Fast Shifts in the Ecology of New Mexico Have Begun Due to Climate Change

Craig Allen

Climate change is beginning to be evident in New Mexico, with markedly warmer and drier conditions expected in coming decades.  These climate changes will stress existing forests, and likely drive increasingly extensive and severe episodes of forest dieback.  This process seems to have already started. In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinusedulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated  bark beetle outbreak. Similer kinds of forest stress and dieback are now becoming apparent in many parts of the world. Warmer, dry conditions will also amplify the severity of fire activity, which can trigger massive erosion in mountain watersheds that could clog reservoirs that store water for human purposes.  Water resources likely will be directly strained in New Mexico as projections of less winter snow means less free natural water storage in mountains watersheds and earlier spring runoff peaks, reducing water available in streams and reservoirs for human uses.  Despite these trends, there are actions (like forest thinning) we can take to increase the resilience of forests in New Mexico to these expected effects of climate change.



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